05.03.2022 Pasco Board of County Commissioners Meeting (Morning Session)

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to order the pasco county board of county commissioners 10 a.m meeting of may 3rd 2022 at this time please silence all electronic devices and mute your microphones please rise for the invocation and pledge of allegiance o merciful creator your hand is open wide to satisfy the needs of every living creature make us thankful for your loving providence and grant that we remembering the account that we must one day give may be faithful stewards of your good gifts amen amen nation under god indivisible with liberty okay madam clerk please call the role wow um district one commissioner oakley here district two commissioner district four commissioner fitzpatrick here district five commissioner mariano here district three chairman stark here um now is the time for public comment oh thank you citizens are given an opportunity to comment on any current or first future agenda item coming before the board and on other business under the board's purview today's public comment will be handled as follows first we will take public comment from those who are here in person then we will take public comment from those who have pre-registered for a webex link and are currently on cue we request that when you address the board comments are not directed personally against a commissioner or team member but rather directed at the issues this provides mutual respect between board members and the public after stating your name and address for the clerk a three-minute timer will be activated after two minutes a single beep will indicate you have one minute left when your time is up two beeps will sound and you should close your comments webex participants will be disconnected automatically when their time is up madam clark do we have anyone signed up for public comments we do two individuals signed up for public comment we have sabrina kobler and nancy hazelwood if ms colgler could come up to the podium thank you and when you come to the podium state your name and address for the record please can you hear me okay my name is sabrina kobler and my address is confidential in pasmo county okay you may proceed hi my name is sabrina kobler i am a newly appointed secretary representing the local 4420 i'm also a captain firefighter here at pasco county fire rescue and a resident of pasco county i'm here today to discuss the extreme deficit of stations i know this isn't new information after all a couple years ago the citizens approved a 147 million dollar bond for the county 70 million of which was to go to new stations

five new builds were supposed to be complete from that bond and four new rebuilds along with a training center that we are in dire need for due to a massive overgrowth these stations have been pushed back month after month because the county either cannot pay for it or are not able to pay for it due to what they are called operating funds we only build one new station at a time which has become a problem as of the get because we are growing rapidly the stations that we are building are taking an excessive amount of time longer than anticipated reportedly the station's currently under construction are delayed supposedly for building maternal availability now i'm not a contractor i'm a firefighter so that may be the case but it is a little alarming when buildings all over the county are being completed just for example there's a house down the road for me they applied for a permit six months after station nine and they have both their roof completed and windows installed our response loans are large we are not able to navigate heavy traffic and poor traffic conditions with the current infrastructure easily and quickly the other day i was on a call and holiday we waited on an ambulance from station 37 and landed lakes if you google that distance it is approximately 17 miles and takes as much as 35 minutes in in heavy traffic neighborhoods are being completed at a faster rate then stations are being completed this is going to cause a problem obviously we need stations and we need them quicker than once every 18 months new stations will help alleviate the response times that we've continually addressed new stations will continue to alleviate crew burnout which is becoming an issue and new stations will help with our unit utilization which is something we've also discussed i'm also not sure why developers are not required to build a new station for us when they're bringing in massive amounts of homes and new population why we don't require that is beyond me most recently 3 400 new homes are coming to newport richie approved by this board an additional 267 homes are going to be input and built in um beacon woods area and that's just two very mild examples multiple multi-family home developments are being approved throughout the county which is going to also increase our population i'm almost finished families and children will be moving into these homes we do not want the headline that a two-year-old who is not able to breathe had to wait 18 minutes i have helped countless children that are lifeless i don't want that on my conscience and neither do our guys

don't make our firefighters live with that don't make our citizens regret moving here you are obligated to provide the resources for public safety and that's what we're requesting that you do just help us to us this is real life it's not a news story thank you um you're not allowed to laugh here sorry oh no i just want to know why the timer isn't working yeah i saw that okay all right thank you let's see what you guys can't clap in here nancy hayes with three four one one now a nice place to follow up what she's saying we do need more funds for them we need to help them and the police all we can we've been telling you for years growth doesn't pay for itself well it's time to pony up and hopefully you won't take it from budgets that are already there tax the people anyways that's not what i really want to talk about today honorable commissioners and madam chair i want to talk about something that seems to be happening at cities and the counties the people that are doing applications for new developments seem to be misrepresenting or downright lying and it's it's come to the attention of quite a few of us at the rv thing that went through not too long ago they misrepresented the count for cars happening should have been counted on saturdays in the middle of the day instead it was done a week at weekdays in the middle of the day and just over at dade city they somebody said well assistant said you know this has not been approved by a deo this the applicant got up there says yes it is nurses and got up and said it wasn't and again it came up and yes it's been approved so they approved the whole plan y'all are being misrepresented what is going on in the application and lying to you about it i was wondering if something could be done maybe it's a chance to put a stiff fine on it and money would come into the county or maybe they need to just go back and start again but this isn't good for the county and it's not good for your citizens and thank you very much for listening thank you is there anyone else here in the room that wishes to address the county commission do we have anyone online no one is on webex so i have ramon blankley no one is on what it said uh previously signed up i guess is the user employee oh that's right he's with her development okay all right um i've actually never seen that on here okay so that is the end of public comment um

now is the time for resolutions madam clerk would you please read the first resolution and with the recipients or recipients please approach the podium i believe rs1 is a postponed to another date yes correct okay and then rs2 is a national day of prayer is there anyone here for rs2 title only okay a resolution well resolution number 22-123 a resolution by the board of county commissioners of pasco county florida observing thursday may 5th 2022 as the national day of prayer in pasco county all in favor opposed right that passes um now we will move on to the consent agenda i have a list of items that have been either pulled or withdrawn starting with c8 pull to discuss c9 pull to discuss c11 pull and revise um c17 also pull discuss and then i have three withdrawals c13 c36 and c37 board members is there anything else you would wish to pull from the consent agenda can't take a motion approval second all in favor aye opposed all right we will start with c8 commissioner moore like i mentioned last time since we have um so many of our members from fire rescue here i just wanted to continue to pull off the consent items that have to deal with fire rescues so obviously the people the audience and people at home understand um these uh items for either purchase or um any type of other um issues that we're dealing with yes sir so c8 is a soul source sole source purchase from a company i believe it's called asp they provide the blue card safety blue card is what our incident commanders use for basically safety and incident management of on-scene structured buyers largest and stuff like that this started in pasco county about five years ago i believe when it started to be implemented we put all the command staff and battalion chiefs regular incident commanders through the initial training um this is to continue that down all the way through our driver so we kind of keep building that training program up all the way through approval all in favor aye opposed c9 here's some more same thank you chief you can explain what this is uh c9 is additional purchasing authority uh basically for fire boots um the number of firefighters we have to hire for each of the stations um as we continue to grow um this is just adding more boots to our our ppe okay so this will speed up the process of getting them in and showing the additional purchase of the authority so we're not waiting okay right move

approval second all in favor aye opposed thank you then we have commissioner moore c-17 um c-17 is actually a a major step forward for pasco county fire rescue i'd say we received a grant from the state port of department of health uh for ems it's an ems grant to add cyano kits to our battalion chiefs and ems supervisors um they're pretty expensive um which is probably why we haven't had them up until this point but they're they're basically we were pulled out of a structure fire unconscious your chances of survival are very small without this medication uh it's it's basically vitamin b12 but without injecting it it doesn't reverse cyanide so this is actually a huge huge thing for the county okay excellent excellent goober thank you very much and the other three items for withdrawn so we are now 11. good morning commissioners doug anderson facilities assistant manager for uh facilities management uh c11 is a demo of selective interior of the summit building we uploaded the incorrect requisition into civic clerk uh the correct requisition has been provided uh request approval approval second all in favor aye opposed okay thank you very much i think that's the end of that i did okay so now we are on to r 50 introduction and reference of proposed ordinances justin ressler solid waste director uh good morning madam chair members of the board r50 is an introduction of an ordinance amending the pastor county code of ordinances chapter 90 article 2 solid waste collection and disposal division 2 sections 90-47 90-48 90-64 related to relates for collection service next slide please so presently in pasco county residential waste collection is managed through an open market system where citizens or hoas contract directory with private waste haulers and right now the rates are set via board resolution and the last amendment to that resolution was in 2019. and since that time we've seen the global pandemic we've seen a number of supply chain issues that bear the need to re-examine this methodology and so what we did is we took feedback from our waste haulers and we looked at what others in the state are doing and we found that the majority of florida counties do not employ a fixed price ceiling for residential waste collection right there are some provisions in there for cost escalation and so the proposed amendment to this ordinance would introduce that next slide please so what we're introducing today is

language that would set a removed residential rate ceiling and replace it with a provision that would index that with the cpi for garbage and trash collection and so for what for the period from 2020 to 2022 since there was a last change that would allow a two-year look back which would equate to an 8.6 increase should the haulers want to do that and then for subsequent years it would be indexed to the cpi right so you would not be allowed to raise rates no more than the cpi this would not have any impact on existing hoa contracts with the private haulers right now those prices would remain fixed until the end of the term unless those contracts have provisions for price escalation with that the department recommends to accept the proposed amendment to the passage county code of ordinances chapter 90 article 2 entitled solid waste collection and disposal sections 90-47 90-48 and 90-64 and direct the solid waste department to advertise to propose revisions for the public hearing before the board of county commissioners on june 7th 2022 at the historic pasco county courthouse board room 2 second floor dade city at 1 30 pm or as soon thereafter as may be heard does the board have any questions uh commissioner mariana yeah justin i appreciate the rising prices a few of our well they want an increase but the uh look the two-year look back at eight point six percent seem to be a little bit strong to get started on uh anyway we do like a one-year look back and then go from there because let's face it if if some things happen and prices come back down it's not going to roll back too quick either if that's something the board wants to look at we can certainly bring that forward i would say this is the cpi for garbage and trash collection it's not the total cpi so the factors are a little bit different um but again if that's the direction the board ford wants to go we can we could certainly present that any other comments on that when you go to one year and you want to keep it together unfortunately we're seeing it in fleet management we have people in fire rescue here as well sheriff's office fuel costs are up cost to do a business is going up but fortunately for all this listen i mean i i've seen i've had the same lawn maintenance person since she's traveled with me to my new home since 2002 or 2001 the first time he's had to raise his rates i didn't botch i mean i can't fault him for it the guy has to make a living yeah you know so i mean i'm i'm just being i'm fine with it as as proposed by

by a staff yeah i was as well yeah commissioner oakley keep it up too keep uh of staff's recommendation yes okay section is there a second all right any more discussion all in favor opposed okay thank you give you guys a little breathing room all right r51 good morning commissioners sally sherman deputy county administrator for development services i come before you this morning asking for your confirmation of mr patrick arrington as a co-compliance director under development services this is a new position within the branch we use some of our existing positions to look at this as you know over the course of the past few years there has been an ongoing dialogue with regard to co-compliance in all areas this is an opportunity for us to bring co-compliance related departments or areas under one umbrella as it relates to the budget preparation and management contract management there's a plethora of contracts that we deal with general business operation and most importantly to look at process improvements and how are we looking at code related issues and how can we improve on our response how can we improve on our documentation and focus on excellence and customer service while we're doing that if you have any questions mr arrington is present here with us this morning and i'd be more than happy to see if you would want to have him do an introduction i'd love to have him tell us a little bit about his background and and meet the board commissioner mariano for you can have questions too um i'll ask him after okay good morning good morning how is everybody good i think we need your name patrick thank you yeah thank you do we need an answer no okay you don't have to keep your address you don't have to wait go ahead i'm sorry i didn't expect i didn't anticipate to come up talked in front of people but i'm looking forward to serving everybody in pasco county uh hopefully this all works out well i've got uh 23 years of law enforcement i'm retiring from that uh next week so that should uh bode me well as we move forward wonderful oh sorry okay commissioner mariano and then williams got some more about his background okay very good yeah it's interesting you're not giving yourself justice i know your background get into a little bit more just besides being a police officer you had or law enforcement you had a background in the military as well correct so 23 years in law enforcement and 10 years

prior to that i was in the military served in the u.s navy as a hospital corpsman if anybody knows anything about the military served a few years with the marine corps as well as a as a hospital corpsman i've got three burned three degrees along the way married got three kids and have done some fun things in the law enforcement world and some fun things in the military world that we could probably discuss over dinner or beers or something yeah right that's good thank you listen i read your background i know it's it's pretty impressive so you're allowed to brag about yourself are you new to pasco county i'm sorry are you new to pasco yes i am well welcome thank you commissioner mariano yeah thank you for your service um i'd like to say that uh coming up that we've got a few challenges i actually like the idea of the position [Music] sally needs to take more stuff off her plate directly and i think that consolidation is good um i like to work with you closely as far as the hud scenario and all the way down through holiday as far as we get a homeless situation and i'm going to be bringing up in the committee reports as far as some issues that are going on now so i look forward to working with you move approval uh any more discussion i'm sure you'll get to know district 3 very well [Laughter] thank you all right uh all in favor say aye aye opposed all right welcome to pasco yeah thank you thank you um r 50 2. good morning madam chair and board members david engel economic growth director as a result of unprecedented residential demand for land in our region the office of economic growth and planning and development department engaged the tampa bay regional planning council to conduct a strategy analysis for the preservation and optimization of light industrial and employment center properties and zoning in the county the study does an economic analysis of the fiscal and uh economic impact to the community when we take industrial land and modify it to allow residential it looks at the market conditions in our area and then it does an analysis of our quality of our zoning and has some recommendations so rather than give a spoiler alert i'd like to introduce randy deshazo chief of staff of the tampa bay regional planning council good morning commissioners thank you david uh thank you to planning staff for your assistance with our uh study um i'm

going to try to work out our presentation here and we'll go ahead and get started first this is our project team that worked on the study for you just as a sort of a general alert that our effort here is strictly advisory so we're not here to tell you what to do but to just provide you with some information that's important because there's a lot of information to absorb today basically our essential focus here is on what we'll call generally industrial land but we specifically mean the future land uses employment centers ec and light industrial il as your main tool and your land use planning toolkit to promote the development of target industry jobs target industry jobs are those higher paying jobs that span a range of blue color manufacturing to high-tech kinds of jobs that help raise the average wage in the county and provide what we'll call a multi-employment multiplier they create more jobs through their own spending down through their own supply chains and household spending so that gives you a little bit of an idea of of generally what our focus is but we do need to get a little bit into the background uh and this is a few uh observations about what's going on in pasco county one out of ten jobs in pasco is what we would call a target industry job the percentage of those jobs in hillsborough and pinellas county is about one out of every four jobs pasco county has the longest commute in the tampa bay area it actually has one of the longest commutes in the entire state it has the lowest jobs housing balance um what we're really talking about today is what's called jobs employee residence what's okay can you say that yeah say that sentence again and i want you to understand lois go ahead and say that yeah lois jobs housing balance so the number of jobs compared to housing units now so you're saying we have more homes than we need then we we need more jobs you need more jobs it's where we're going i've been saying that last five years haven't it all happened yeah it's coming so but uh getting into the uh the nerdy details of this i'll refer to it as jobs employed residents as the labor force changes there are fewer people who are actually working and so it's probably more appropriate to call it jobs employed residents so that's a little bit of our metric that we use about 70 percent of your employed residents work somewhere else besides pasco county and then i want to emphasize that those points are all related to each other uh and we'll talk about how that plays into our recommended strategy and then as david mentioned uh we're facing a close

to unprecedented change in demand for for residential uses uh single-family prices have jumped uh by 30 33 over the past year and have increased substantially uh over the last 20 years the overall tampa bay metropolitan area has also increased faster than the u.s rate of change and housing prices i will mention sort of in passing that last time that happened was in late 2007 so just to give you a sense of what may be going on here all right so again going back to the the impact of all of these uh changes in residential market uh you see a lot of demand for change uh from future land use amendments and so this is just a graphic showing you some of the recent changes you've actually had a slight increase over the last two years in light industrial but you've seen some losses and heavy industrial and and employment center uses but for our purposes the two key questions we're going to focus on today are how many jobs does the county need and then how many acres do those jobs need and the point of all of this exercise is not just to help you think about what what potential expansion of light industrial or employment center you might consider in the future where they help you think through the balance of overall land uses so that's where we get to what i'll call the multiple choice piece of this banners often talk in terms of what's going to what the county will look like in 25 years what is the overall build out it doesn't necessarily work for you as decision makers as you consider the next acre of land and so what this table here shows you are what are the various potential kinds of development scenarios as a result of development of single family versus different kinds of industrial uses you can see that there's an escalating impact based on how much of the target industries you might have in terms of their overall impact on wages and on taxes and again this will give you a sense of what could happen on a single acre of land versus single family development now this is a lot to to absorb all in one go so what we did is we also tried to boil it down into a single number the idea here is that we take the the average of what those wages might be in the target industry stretch it out over the forecast period that we look at through 2050 and then we do a little bit of financial discounting to give you a sense of what the value per acre is every time you change it from some industrial land use to some non-employment use and it's about two million dollars in lost personal income that's direct and indirect and it's also discounted can you go back go back to that slide again the previous one oops nope

going forward going forward okay i don't know if somebody can help yourself i just keep on going going forward computer system there you go right here this one here so i mean let's really look at that okay i mean for residential single family homes the far right column at 65 grand the next one down upscale retails in 1.5 million 65 000. what's that that's 65 000. 65 000 sorry yeah um 1.5 million for the next one 2.2 million for the next and three millions huge jumps that we need to look at okay well i think that's it's always been that way oh yeah but i'm just understanding it's like when you really look at those numbers though didn't that strike you i'll wait i i don't think this part will be all that surprising but again to go back to where uh we were before just to give you a sense of it's about two million dollars at one go uh in loss of personal income now again getting back to the earlier point well how many jobs are you talking about because you do have to balance your land uses among employment and non-employment uses so the point of setting a goal then is not to establish some mandate or a time table that you have to accomplish the point is to help you give focus to your future land use decisions and then to think about how those decisions ultimately impact your balance of jobs within your county and so we're going to focus on two kinds of stats for a lack of a better term the jobs employed residents and what we call job match so 70 of your residents go out every day to work somewhere else and that is not just the case that there's not enough jobs in the county there are not enough well-paying jobs so the point of ecil or industrial land in general is that you want to increase the share of target industry jobs in your economy and this is your main land use tool to do that all right so um this is a lot of information to look at in one chart so i'll try to walk you through it here on the left hand side are our counties those little dots that are jobs poor they have higher commute times average commute times than people who are down in the center and those higher community times will call jobs poor because they are they've got less than 1.0 of that balance between jobs and employed residents now of course they're going somewhere they're going to hillsboro they're going to orange county those counties are jobs rich and what happens to their average commute times it goes back up so there's this kind of happier middle point which is those counties that are more or less jobs balanced so that doesn't mean that you have free

flow traffic pinellas county is pretty busy during rush hour but it does actually have a lower than a lower average commute time than pasco county does so this this just gives us a sense of what that range looks like all right so what does this mean in terms of how many jobs from the target industry jobs perspective you're thinking about planning for an increase of about 35 000 jobs over the next 25 years and to plan land uses accordingly now to get to that overall one-to-one ratio between jobs and employed residents adding those targeted industry jobs actually helps you to get there because they create other jobs through their own spending now that gives you a sense of how many jobs we think you need to have to balance your jobs with your future housing needs or your future employed residence need now what does that mean in terms of how much land do you have well we did a lot of gis analysis we'll get to it in another slide uh where we looked at what are the available acreages of ec ecil and the puds and we see that overall you actually do have a lot of land that is buildable that fits within those categories but uh target industries don't necessarily come and say well we'll take one acre at a time their their demand for land is lumpy um they usually don't want one acre at a time they need usually large sites and then it may be hard to see in this slide here but the average for industrial parks throughout the country is about 550 acres in size and then in this expert that we're quoting here they're looking at 10 to 15 acre parcels that fit within a 200 acre park at a minimum to be qualified as an industrial park that's a bit of an issue here because not only is a quarter of your industrial land that that is already developed uh tends to be a bit older than average and some of it may be approaching obsolescence there may be a need to consider uh redevelopment but they're really big issue here is that you've got a very fragmented pattern of industrial land the um overall distribution is that half of your parcels are less than four acres forty percent of all those parcels uh are actually less than two two acres in size so they're scattered across the county they're not easily assembled uh and so that is really your land's use supply issue it's not so much the total acreage but where those acres are and how they're divvied up so what we did is we took a look at where your existing concentrations of industrial land were we put around buffers around those

properties on a long railway and along truck routes to identify areas that you might consider adding future ec and il and the point here is not just to add acres but to look at larger sites that might better fit the the needs of future industrial land use so um that leads us to the overall points about our strategy um those areas that i showed you in that previous map might fit into what we'll call an industrial sanctuary the idea there and we're borrowing it from jacksonville where they also had a sanctuary concept is that these are areas that you want to protect from redesignation to residential or other uses to consolidate industrial land so that you can get to those those scales that industry needs to operate and to work with each other and to attract labor and and to do that you need to identify some basic criteria such as perhaps establish a new land use and zoning that has a very significantly larger minimum lot size than what you currently allow for a light industrial or heavy industrial which is about 30 000 or 40 000 square feet and talk about a minimum lot size of 50 acres or perhaps higher than that you want to also consider adding uh through a a long term process another two thousand acres they can sort of keep that in your back pocket as a reserve uh for future uh job growth and to make sure that when developers come or when industry comes you can point to areas that are essentially easily changed to industrial use and then we talk a little bit about uh interval and redevelopment incentives um but a lot of that is also about broadening permitted uses and to think of different ways to encourage redevelopment all right so these are our takeaways again just drawing your attention to ec and il is the the main tools that you have for developing your target industries to set a job goal it doesn't have to be one job per employed resident any progress you make towards leveling up your jobs to employ residents will likely result in an improvement in your average commute times uh and then the think about where you might uh add future industrial land and the process that we've suggested includes trying to consolidate around existing areas or concentrations of industrial land and then finally to consider hybrid districts so to look at how you might encourage more flexibility in your in

your land uses so that land uses that might be classified as a heavy industrial or light industrial can actually work within the same district and also meet minimum size requirements for industrial or corporate business parks now i will close with one downside because if you do increase your share target industry jobs you're likely to increase your average housing prices because you will be more attractive to future residents so there's that and that's it thank you questions i have some questions thanks thank you madam chair uh but i'll let you guys go thanks a question for you um when we talk about industrial slides but you said in addition industrial sites we're also talking about maybe office and some commercial as well correct yeah how important is to maintain the current entitlements on those industrial sites um as well as office and major corridors i'll use this for an example i-75 stateroom 56 right easier access for people to get on 275 and 75 to get to work correct easier to traverse the area across the county losing roads like state road 56 state road 54. how important is to maintain those and not convert those so that is part of the concept behind the industrial sanctuary that jacksonville has pioneered in the state which is that those areas that are around the main points of access to the statewide economic market is absolutely essential you have to make sure that you keep those some of the more scattered parcels that are too small you may want to consider converting to other uses based on market demand but you really need to keep an eye on what happens with those areas that are at crossroads and another question too you may not have looked into this um you may have to give your opinion or not give an opinion okay um when it comes to these i'll say job training sites again whether the industrial office whatever when it comes to you showed on there that the return on on the investment for the county or city is much greater correct at the same time when it comes to the use of resources county and city resources i'm going to assume that's much less the majority of time on these sites as well is that correct that is correct we did not look specifically at cost of community services as part of our overall analysis partly it's it's hard to do for a variety of reasons but um it is a simple fact that um industrial uses tend to use fewer public services than residential

so when we say public services we could use for example um fire rescue we could use the sheriff's office would have there'd be less of an impact on those services than there would be on say a multi-family apartment complex not just that but i think in a lot of cases industrial use is actually um subsidize the cost of those services for residential right right thank you commissioner mariano thank you madam chair you know randy and i love the expansion part of the areas that we have currently but i've got a concern let's say in the hudson area that you've got some industrial property one of the roads you showed as long on diagonal road that's there right right across from u.s 19. it doesn't have water and sewer there's a lot of 10 acre process that connect to it there's the parcel indents and we just gave up some commercial to get some residential going along along that area that maybe if water and sewer was there how important is water and sewer to that infrastructure as well um i i'm quite certain that it's quite important and it's critical right yeah so do others take let's say policies to say okay we're gonna look at industrial land and make those investments like we did at the zephyr hills airport is that a common practice i i i don't know to be honest i would assume so i mean it's something i think we ought to consider um you've got industrial land it's located to a major highway it's not near a rail line which obviously you want but it's near the major truck routes and it's you know probably good potential and they could create jobs right in that area too so thank you um so one of my questions i i used to know this number years ago but prices have changed so much and it's it's always been that residential uses more services than job than office retail industrial but there used to be a value on a house that you could kind of set where it was taking or it was giving do you happen to know what that is these days uh no but i would say that it changes yeah um because i've seen that a lot of organizations like american farmland trust have tried to put a specific number on that but it does change based on the community and where you are in the community yeah i remember um years ago when michelle baker was here i think that number was at 350 yeah that rings about 400 i'd be very curious to know what that is today i'm sure i'm sure it's different commissioner oakley yeah i appreciate your uh presentation the um and it fits right into where we've been in pasco we have more residential it

seems to be easier to get residential as we all know in into our county but we also at this time appeared in our history here now we're starting to see more and more jobs come our way in the east pasco county within the next few months we'll start seeing like 5 million square foot of warehouse and jobs importing jobs and jobs that pay more will be coming to the east pasco county area so with all this we don't need to give up any of our industrial park area or any of our place for commercial or our businesses and all because we need those jobs and we don't have so much that's set aside for that so if we give it up we lose it and if you give it up to residential it's going the wrong way it's the balance is out of the way so commercial help pay for what the service are for all the residents we have and we have more and more residential coming but we also have a lot of jobs coming to east pasco county and i grew up here in pasco county and date city when you went off to school you if you were not already in a business or your family in a business in this area whatever you studied at school you might have to go somewhere else to get that job i think we're changing that i think we're gonna go past that and have jobs for our our students and all that come out of schools here and we've got more technical schools happening so we'll be able to keep a lot of our young folks here in their in their home and their their families so i think that's all good it's the progress of uh what happens in the future as we're growing but we've got to be careful and real careful about not holding up i've been thinking about the vision for the northeast rural area and everybody sees it one day but if you remember last year it was either last year year before the state took the right of the facts of solar farms to be governed by the state on any agricultural property and our northeast rural is full of rural agricultural property so we've got to move forward with the vision or we'll lose it to solar which i don't think we really there's nothing wrong with solar in the right place but i don't think we want it in that northeast rural very much of it so i think it's something we need to move forward have very good housing and ideas out there that keeps it in a rural something very special for pasco county so but all this goes along with our growth and what we're seeing coming so there's nothing wrong i've always said there's nothing wrong with good planned growth so and look out for the future commission

mariana thank you and uh you know another good point you brought up and commissioner oakley i think we're all thrilled to see that overland overpass business park exploded instantly as soon as we put in the market right what's going on at the pasco one center is tremendous and i'm glad to see we're looking at expanding those areas um the central paschal employment center coming up for a hearing later on today one of the things that was done was it was a trade-off from one person have an industrial land to get the other one coming in help moffitt come in and in your presentation you made a really good point about trying to make it easy for people to take it from non-industrial to get it to industrial or ec and i think it's something we need to do we need to make it simple like if you want to go change it and if it fits whatsoever we need to stave off the process maybe even save them the money of doing the conversion maybe we need to like make these things board initiated that if you want to go take your property do you think you can make it industrial and have the services to it then we make that process where we take care of that expense and go through the president and set it up to make it easy for people to go make that shift yeah so did you look at the um i'm sure could just fold up on this sure thank you man i think and dan once you jump in real quick here and you guys may have as well but i had conversations with um mr biles um terry sally and i think there's a plan in place and they're working on that because that was one of my concerns as well about always having to do that swap in that central pasco um employment whatever we want to call it so long but um but i talked to you about hey they shouldn't have to swap they want to do industrial let's do a dodge trail thank you so we've you're working on something you may have that finished can you respond to that well obviously working on some stuff with the property owners there you have a public hearing this afternoon yeah forget the property owners talking about in the future if somebody wants to add induction without doing a swap right you know we've we've i think we've been clear that the board if somebody was coming into industrial that we want to maximize the square footage as best we can on the site a lot of the challenges are revolve around transportation you hit the you start dominoing into transportation impacts with a certain square footage that's part of the cpvs issue is at some point the square footage of industrial dominoes into transportation impacts that you have to fix off-site to make it work and we don't get mobility fees on industrial property they're right there

effectively zero so yes we are working on that uh terry can have some more details but effectively you know if you come in for a target industry or light industrial we're trying to do our best to make it work and maximize the the value on the piece of property uh terry wanted to add a terminal and we have plenty of time this morning so uh victoria's pizza's planning and development department that's important thank you madam chair uh to answer the question for cpev central past employment village specifically we are to dan's point looking at what we can do from the county's perspective to enable additional industrial entitlement to move in to the cpev area without having to do swaps right because cpev established a maximum threshold back in back in the day of 2006 2008. that was around 3.7 million square feet of industrial which at that time was a lot the economy certainly has changed for florida in general but also for pasmo county and so we want to be able to update that uh those statistics it's changed even since last summer when we was when we last looked at the central pasco employment village sub-area policies so we're we're definitely looking to that point uh commissioner and i'm sure yep so to to follow you know if we're making industrial land go through looking at transportation issues now if there's some things that need to be done between a turn lane coming in or something like that i think it's something maybe we should look at the future pending for pasco as far as an allocation where we can put money or even but transportation budget for industrial land to actually come in to help them come in and cut down the cost when i when we look at the hearing later on today but the transportation numbers if i've got residential homes coming in leaving all the transportation studies we need them done right right to make sure they make sense um for industrial land if we're creating jobs right here i don't know why i even need a transportation study i'm going to keep people working here instead of going somewhere else what am i why do i why do i make them spend time and money on engineers for that when we know it's going to reduce the number of trips and cut commute times down for people yeah good point madam chair just for clarification in terms of the transportation analyses that are done for employment generating land uses specifically industrial and ec type target industry uses we as the planning and development department we exempt the transportation

needs assessment that occurs at the company it's a planning stage we also exempt the timing and phasing analysis that occurs with these zoning phases for those uses i think for when we get to actual site planning we do have to take a look at how access is getting in and out from the from from the actual site that's being designed and accessing the arterials or the collector roads but for the most part all of the transportation analyses for those industrial uses um are being exempted currently okay and i think mr angle wants to your point yes and um david did you want to add some stuff to this well i just wanted to thank the tampa bay regional planning council i think they did a great job and they did it quickly and they used a substantial portion of the remaining cares act funds to fund this project and we had a very small amount of contribution out of the accounts funds um so we're going to work with planning and bring bring more work forward but this is a good starting point and i thank you for allowing me to do this study well um you know something that wasn't mentioned well i still have some questions on this industrial study but um we have millions of square feet of job creation space coming on in the pipeline right and i have pretty high numbers we have a substantial pipeline yeah we have we are yes ma'am about to see in the next few years massive amount of job creation here um and i i'm still a neophyte but i'm trying i think that houses typically come before the jobs the jobs they don't typically build the jobs and then then the house is built around it because they look for the workforce based on the projections yeah that's why we're based on the projection of the study that that randy's staff prepared we need 150 000 jobs to meet that one-to-one ratio so that's a substantial amount of jobs and well over our pipeline yeah so um so how can we what are the best and did you want to add something well i was just going to say you just need to be mindful you need to stay balanced you we i think as a county we've been a little out of balance obviously no jobs yeah right so we're starting to see that balance shift a little bit as you mentioned there's a lot in the pipeline i think there's probably stuff david's working on that probably you may not have even seen yet so there is a lot out there that's coming in interest and we are using uh commissioner your point we are using various incentive tools to help leverage that to help bring these these jobs and these projects in so there we are working on a lot of things so

with various tools that we have available and we're wrapping up i think a development agreement in the next few days or weeks to bring to the board that you'll see probably in june so there is a lot happening out there and we are leveraging our tools as best we can to help get the right industries in the right spots yeah and um and and so if a part of our problem is a lack of large tracts of land how do we go about um making sure that we're we have more places coming in as these ones take fill up what we have how are we going to look at putting together large tracks well that's part of the planning process and we've started to engage that process planning and development the mpo office of economic growth we're working together to identify freight carters road systems and look at the marketplace and look at the land available because there's not a lot of vacant land left in the region besides up here in pasco for industrial yeah and situate uh new industrial development at the right place and do it on a notable basis so that'll be part of your comp plan and zoning process yeah so i think that's really important for us to focus on of course you have to have landowners that will participate commissioner mariana yeah madam chairman and part of the thing many many years years ago when we did the year amendment uh one of the things i was trying to caution everyone on is the northern part of the county it's all rural all the way through even the hudson area et cetera and i had referenced look at what happened to hillsboro when they protected everything to the northern part of their county and now we're paying big losses for with all the traffic coming from pendleton hillsborough using 54 that was going to struggle with for a while and i think i've talked to several businesses that want to have utilities up along county line road if the governor signs the kind of line road budget to get that road done it's going to be critical that we start adding in that water and sewer up there running up and down we shouldn't have to have our business depend on getting water from across the street and if we don't get the sewer in there you're not going to get the industrial development you could even long along that road yeah so i think it's something really to look at as the next month or two plays out to go that way but again david i want to thank you and regional planning council too for doing the study i think it's great to have this conversation amongst us to to get kind of reacclimated our jobs uh ratio is is low and i don't think we need to be cautious dan i need to do things full throttle let's

focus jobs and a question is that a historical number or has it gone up has gone down did we look at you know 30 years of housing to jobs or well that's a sliding scale i mean it's up that's a policy decision by the board whether you want to do a one-to-one no i'm just wondering if we've gotten better if we've gotten worse um we've we've gotten worse actually um so from 1990 to now we're worse off than we were in 90. we had more agricultural related heavy industry type of jobs here in the county to the proportion of population but now it's gotten worse okay madam chair yes okay so if can we go back to slide 10 please because we were talking about transportation and this is based on commute times and minutes but do we have anything commute times in distance um not on any chart that uh we prepared for this um uh in a lot of cases uh i i guess the the the way we think about it is time is money and that people tend to value how much time they're spending um versus the exact distance and so like if the distance is longer but there's no traffic you're still going to get there sooner than you would okay because i was going to ask for pasco county we have a longer commute time and where we where are the majority of employees driving to mostly hillsborough so if we look over at hillsborough hillsborough is still consistently high compared to the other counties continuing the graph so right as they become job rich everybody comes to their county slowing those commuters down and so that's part of the the price you pay for being jobs rich which is kind of why we are suggesting try to shoot for jobs balanced which is a one-to-one ratio where the commute time is generally less than the really jobs rich areas and that's why we prefer to keep the jobs here even at being industrial considering the traffic studies even if they are higher they're going to reduce the traffic on the roads and it will be more of a beneficial instead of driving all the way an hour away thank you commissioner could you go to the very last slide again what was your stop just one bite go back the one with the with the map with the ten segmented areas that's the the map right there all right so i'm looking at your ten different segments you have but i'm just a little curious as i look at it on

prepared the economic and housing analysis that's basically the demand side of the analysis to determine what working together and with county staff we determined what had been built and then taking out subtracting that from the entitlements determining how many uh how much potential there is for multi-family development in the moratorium area the exciting part of the study is really the demand analysis which eric lift of lambert advisory will present but i just did want to give you the overview if you have any questions for our part of the analysis or for lambert's part of the analysis were available but at this point i'll turn it over to eric loeff of lambert advisory who can present the report manager quick question yeah so was it just the demand analysis that was done or is there no no it's uh we we actually did the supply analysis what's available what's out there what's been approved basically uh and then the demand analysis by lambert any any economic effects of analysis uh i'll i guess i'll let eric uh explain that but it's basically yeah how what is the what is the current demand and projected demand for future housing that's what i mean by by housing demand or multi-family so but no economic analysis um i'm not sure if we talked about that i'll let it eric explain that part of it okay they didn't do one you there's no yeah that was what the regional planning council went first thank you again eric lift lambert advisory um to answer your question was quite a bit of economic analysis that was conducted um let me if i can just go kind of go through this presentation and then be you know we can interact during the presentation or certainly take questions after um to be clear um there were two key um uh pieces of the scope that we were focusing on the the primary fo with the primary task which you know as as far as our organization with with the county was to answer the question of you know with this temporary moratorium is the mab um the moratorium area boundary oversaturated with multi-family entitlements that was a clear directive within our scope of service the second area of the scope was really a broad broad analysis of economic conditions it was real it's used for uh for data gathering obviously number one to support our our primary task and then to provide enough information and data um

for future housing policy and planning initiatives it doesn't necessarily come to any conclusions but if if you've seen and we have produced a report it is quite comprehensive there's an executive summary that provides a very concise summary but with a lot of data and then there's the backup within the report with all of what it does it has comprehensive economic demographic data housing supply information all the way from unison structure to typology and tenure we looked at multi-family housing specifically development trends pricing occupancy demand forecasting uh and then we just did an overview affordability and just to understand where those gaps are a lot of that from published information from the university of florida schinberg center for housing studies so the presentation today really focuses on this top question which is the moratorium and the oversaturation in terms of entitlements um we've been to the mab study area i think it's very important to understand when we started this project back in july the original moratorium as as as it had been alluded to earlier was a little bit more constricted it did not go down to the county line and it did not stretch a little bit further east we actually were not made aware of the expanded boundary until late february so we had to we went back and in this short period of time because we were instructed to have information available by the third week of march that we had to re kind of revisit all of the economic demographic housing data within a couple of week period time which we were able to accomplish and so that is now included within the report um very quickly some of the findings first of all for the mab we look at total housing units developed by decade breaking it out between single-family condo multi-family greater than 10 units and multi-family less than 10 units this information is from the pasco county property appraiser database um this is not our data this is actually day that we utilize as the basis for analyzing uh development by decade and and a couple of key points one as you can see since 1990 in the past 30 years there's been 800 plus housing units built within the mab total housing units built within the nab over you know annually over that period of time um it's been you know you obviously you had the peak in the 2000s but you still had some strong development both in the 90s and between 2010 and 2020 which started in that period started off relatively slowly due to the great recession and a slowdown in housing um and the other key point here is that you you know initially in the mab you had a heavy dominance of single-family development and over the last couple of

decades you're starting to see a little bit of a balance now with multi-family development where it's gone from 99 percent of the of the development pattern in the 90s down to 84 2000 and now it's like 67 69 percent uh within the past decade uh and then the 2020s is only you know uh not even two years of data really available at the time and you're seeing even a further balance but that that the trend really we look at the previous three decades um in in comparison uh i just wanted to show the development patterns of pasco county uh comparatively over the last 30 years if you took 90s to 2020 and again you can see it's a little more it's not quite as pronounced but you can see that there is again a balance with multi-family development and that demand is there and being accommodated and so um and again you know the the county wide you've been building 3 500 plus minus units a year both single-family and multi-family man i'm sure yeah quick question in that slide in the previous one uh on the previous slide i even showed like condos like a previous two segments where like tens and and twenty like zero condos anything i don't wanna i wouldn't know why they weren't built in the 2010s um or during that decade i in 2020 and they're not building on them yeah i guess i mean first of all as far as i would understand um the the shift to multi-family has been shipped has been to rental um and the condominium it's just it i don't know why i couldn't tell you why that demand wasn't there during that period that wasn't you know that's that's but this but this is development patterns that are directed from the you know or from directly from the property appraiser so so i just i just went to the uli conference in san diego and they're not really building condos it it the market is rental like our generation is selling their houses moving into apartments they're moving around living in different parts of the country very slow on the condo you're exactly right it's become much more transparent rental is the trend and the other point i want to make though if we're looking specifically at the mab um typically in a suburban type market condominiums are not in favor it's mostly rental and or single-family homes so condominiums traditionally are not built traditionally are not built within uh the you know the suburban areas they're coastal coastal uh development patterns that that that supply that you know that provide that demand the the other the other thing was the younger people who a lot of them who can work from home and live anywhere also want mobility options they don't they move around the country

um and so and the rental is booming correct and then again you know again with a more suburban type development that's you know most people are are moving out there for you know the single family for the space for the family you know the family accommodations both you know larger house and land um and then the other factors the multi-families provides them for many years obviously with the with the affordability rental versus home ownership um and as you can start you know you will you'll see within statistics and it's well known today obviously what's happening both in the for sale and rental market with price escalations but prior to rental was a was was typically uh more of a an attainable type housing than it would be for single family so again you know talking about the county there's a little more balance so i just wanted to show also a statistic between pinellas county and hillsborough county and look at their balance of of development over the past several decades between single family and and multi-family development as you can see pinellas county as it continuously gets billed out obviously the balance has shifted now heavily to multi-family they just don't have the land availability for single family but hillsborough county it too has actually had been a little more balanced from the beginning during the 90s and just kind of maintain that relative balance but it's still you know you're talking about 30 plus percent multi-family versus you know close to 70 percent single-family and consistently balanced in that regard and again if you remember you know pascal county and then maybe or the mab itself is now kind of reflective of what's going on you know that that characteristic characteristic in hillsborough county um and then just looking at development so between in the mab between 2000 and 2009 there was an average of 220 units built per annum uh during that decade and then it kind of had modified it to uh 130 units uh per year between 2010 and 2019 again a lot of that attributed to coming out of the great recession when you had you know you had stagnation and and obviously a pause on development in 2000 you know in the early 2010 period um but now if we look at a snapshot of the map in terms of multi-family it's 97 occupied and and rents have increased more than 15 percent over the past 12 months so the tremendous demand that's occurring within this market and you can see it because a lot of it is obviously pent up there's 248 units that have been built in the past two years however there's 552 units that are currently under construction within that that are going to be delivered within a 12-month period and then there's another 838 units that have just started uh the construction process and should be

delivered between 23 and 20 to 2023 and 2024. so this demand is obviously far outpacing what's occurred in the in in previous periods uh and it's showing you that that multi-family demand is is is is there and being supported and continuously the occupancy doesn't even take a corresponding hit with all this new development um enough in the effort to determine demand we utilized information you know first of all we looked at the historical development patterns but it's very important when you make projections to be able to to look at you know what is population household growth and how does that affect housing development both both by typology single-family multi-family development and this we don't you know we need to utilize information that's provided to us um and in this case we use data from the mpo and you can see that from you know during the the pre earlier decades you know 2000 2010 in the study area population growth was you know in five five percent plus um per per annum uh had modified in in you know between 2010 and 2020 but still a relatively stable two percent per annum comparative with the county you know far outpace the county which was showing growth of about three percent during the past decade and modified to a little bit less than two percent uh from twenty i'm sorry from 2000 to 2010 it was three percent had modified from 2010 to 2020 to just below 2 and then the mpo does make projections they're long-term projections uh through 2045 and so you need to contemplate what that means because obviously there's cycles in development and cycles in in population growth but in this case the mpo is showing about 1.1 percent annual average annual growth in the mab uh and the county now is shifting and actually outpacing the nab slightly to 1.35 so we use this as the basis for determining demand and then we make our own assumptions and analysis using multiple scenarios what we'll call in this case what we're calling a a modest which is basically mimicking or mirroring the mpos projection data then we have a fair share analysis which say the me and the mab will capture at least its fair share of the county's population growth going forward which is a fair assumption namely because it's far outpaced during the past several years and then the last we go a little bit more you know what we call an upper limit and we push you know we're going to go back to more historical growth rates and growth rates that are kind of reflective of what's happening right now in the development so we use all of these to kind of just gauge and and provide us a little bit of flexibility in in determining demand going forward um and in this case what we had done is you know based upon those household demand projections we looked at it in two two fashions one we said okay what if it what if the mab were to develop uh

uh more in line with what it was historically in terms of multi-family where multi single family dominated at 80 multi-family was lesser at about 20 and then we did another analysis we said okay let's shift to current patterns where you're seeing 68 single family 32 multi-family and you can see you know within the circles of where the average annual demand is i mean if the if the map captures just its fair share it's it's growing at 100 to 150 units per year of multi-family which is directly in line with historical trends or even below historical trends and then if you shift to the upper you've got you know demand of about 130 to 210 multi-family units per year which is as you recall is well below even what's under construction today um and then so you're saying the supply is below the demand notice supplies supply supply is outpacing demand right now but what's going to suppose that pacing demand correct however um it's not typically you would see a corresponding impact well that hasn't been delivered but there are still 250 units delivered and the occupancy is still strengthened which means demand is the demand is outpacing that supply but right now there's more um there's more supply than there is um than there has been historically and so based on that theoretically it's outpacing demand but somehow demand is these are just projections demand is actually that's why i'm saying if you went up to the upper level that's what we're starting to achieve the upper level and beyond what's really happening again i'm using statistics just to come up for demand demand does that is that so let me i'll keep going then we can kind of we can revisit that so as as lewis had mentioned earlier cga had to take a look at the supply side in conjunction with the county to understand what are the entitlements that are remaining within the mad and so we looked at all the mpuds and again collectively by mpud had assessed what entitlements are remaining and it's difficult to see only because there's so much information on this chart but the bottom line is if you look at the bottom there's about thirty four hundred thirty four fifty total entitlements remaining in the mav that is according to um the analysis that was done you know in collectively between the county and and cga and lambert um right there you know obviously if we're talking about having built out 8 000 units per year on average in total households and housing units we're seeing you know there's not much inventory or entitlement inventory remaining within them and maybe applicable to both single-family and multi-family development now

not all of these entitlements have been designated single-family or multi-family some there is just you know they they're they're they're flexible in this case we understand there's about 953 which single family go ahead can you which column shows the entitlements per mpud um that are remaining the um it says calculated remaining it says element calculated remaining it's three thousand four hundred thousand yeah there's three thousand four fifty three but there's no column of the total entitlement that is that's total entitlements there's total entitlements sure on the left-hand side on the left-hand side of the chart well they've done these 12-1500 so there's no total actual entitlements it's just the remaining and then the ones built to the right bottom right hopefully so on the bottom of remaining multifamily is 688. correct that we can that that we could tell that are designated however as part of that 3453 there's going to either be single they're not that there's a portion of it so if you took the 3453 and you and you and you subtracted the 953 right there's and the 688 the balance of that the balance of that inventory is designated it can be either single-family or multi-family and that's exactly what we use to determine the amount of multi-family that's left in a range and that's and you can see that's about 1200 to 1500 units of multi-family that remain again it's it's variable only because we don't know and it can be designated either but if there's a if you took out the single family already entitled in multi-family the balance of that we did the split again between saying okay what if 20 were to be built out as multi-family or 30 were to be built out as multi-family it would come out to be 1200 to 1500 units of multi-family entitled remaining units and to be that are entitled within the mav and so so the residential units from the county are the entitlements that are there and then is there a reason seven oaks doesn't have the listed entitlements and same with connerton it only shows that the multifamily built was 582. the rest of the numbers are missing entitlements yeah that's a good question because they're still entitlements there they haven't been used they just put an app in for another one in the back class which that already has entitlements the application's already been yeah if there's 1720 minus 582 but why are they not listed on here so uh nakjario sputo's planning and development department i think what you're what you're seeing is the interplay of the land use equivalency matrices right right but they still have a total of entitlements and they should be listed on here because that's still an additional

thousand plus multi-family units of entitlements that are not listed on here well i think what's listed on here is what is what has been identified in the in those mpuds and as uh mr olive has indicated don't quite know which way they're going to go because of the land use equivalency matrix instruments that are in the mpuds so you have to project out and consider what might take place and so those are the numbers that are on the side of the slide here if we have all these on puds and they have the entitlements who's to say if they're going to utilize their entitlements or not then i think that would be the market demand that would influence the property owners and the developers as to what they would i i mean i would agree with this so like in in starkey ranch they have a lot more um units that they could have built than what they built and i think that's very typical that's very typical in this environment where you have a lot of environmental sensitive lands where you can't build everywhere right so generally you're over entitled inclusion can we go through the conclusion i got a commission because she's asking questions right and i do it but she doesn't get an answer are these entitlements never going to be utilized though are these over entitlements that they're not going to utilize because then it's not going to be an accurate report i don't know this was a paper exercise we don't know what the things are on the specific parcel on the specific project so some of this to a certain extent was based on what's in the file not what's on the ground yeah madam chair to the commissioner's point that was going to bring it up during my five page response that i'm going to have in a few minutes um there are 307 units that are are in for an application now that aren't listed as well so in the area that you mentioned before not knowing if they're going to be converted multi-family somebody just submitted another application so there's another 370 which i'll talk about later that'll be on top of it so you're right there are some that we're not aware of because they are coming they just put another application now he wouldn't have gotten that yeah it would have been included in his credit i didn't have that because it came in after he did his report it just happened like a week ago right so madam chair yeah so there's a lot more there yeah so why don't we let him finish and then we'll say i know it's a good question but let's let him finish because he may address it

that there is and you could have built sorry additional units in starkey not me i'm not the developer well they could have built additional units in starkey ranch but they chose not to so those entitlements are still out there but they're not going to utilize it or they may not have space to build it or whatever the issue is are they not i think they're gonna if they're not if they don't have a space to utilize it then they no longer have those entitlements it's very very common for uh development to have more i think it's the norm to have more entitlements than they ever deliver correct and that these numbers are going to be skewed if there's no more room to build those entitled multi-family units well he may have that his conclusion i don't know i haven't read it but um we can we can address those things at the end can i can i just touch on what she asked just i would appreciate that because i don't think she they answered a question i know but he hasn't finished yet but no terry didn't answer the question i think i really want him to finish his report make a list of your questions i think it's extremely important that we hear the answer to the question do not always get the answers to the questions finish his report and then you can we can get dive into those questions okay go ahead sorry thank you um so in conclusion basically based upon again based upon the information that we are utilizing in terms of oops in terms of um entitled units right which is about which we're really based on this analysis is about 1200 to 1500 units and then looking at from purely a market perspective and understanding demand which there's a demand for at least 1300 to 1700 units uh per year over the next 10 years that leaves you with an absorption of about six to ten year period to use up all the entitlements that are at least that we've designated today and that we've understood um if that changes obviously then the analysis would change you know we would calibrate that with demand but the bottom line of the demand that that's the baseline from which you can you can then reassess this if the entitlement number changes um the only the question is some of some of the um some sites might not be um you know highly conducive to multi-family development that could shorten the time frame although you know there might be other sites that that eventually that could be allocated so we you know based upon this analysis it's about a six to ten year absorption period to to to to use up those those multi-family uh entitlements um in terms of a planning horizon when we look at near term we call it about a five to seven year time time frame obviously you're going to use

these up these entitlements up within the near term time frame so in our estimation in our understanding that does not represent an oversaturation of multi-family units especially if you're looking at longer term horizon and longer term planning then you would go you would want an inventory that goes beyond six to ten years so that's you know it's just it's just a conclusion based upon the supply and demand analysis um and then you know whichever way it goes the county um would need to consider um you know what it means to you know if if if if the moratorium stays in place what does it mean in terms of of being able to accommodate this demand in terms of you know infrastructure improvements housing affordability and so forth that were just to you know keep the moratorium in place it would obviously shift somewhere else else but what the cost of that both from an infrastructure an affordability standpoint which this study does not address it just opens up that idea that needs to be addressed in subsequent uh you know subsequent studies but again you know a lot of the background data that can start helping the county understand what those are is in the body of this report so that's that's the conclusions from the supply and demand chances can we get to some of those okay so commissioner moore has some questions and then um we want to answer um and i want to dive into her question a little bit more too so commissioner moore has support thank you madam chair and thanks for taking this on um i respect how tough this is i mean it's it's hard to figure out where all these are what's coming online it's difficult um a couple issues questions i need to bring up um one of the headline numbers based on your own information report we i feel should be at least eight 12 units delivered within the next 12 months not 552. so if you go back to on page 40 of the report i don't know i don't see the page's number if you look at page 40 report um you can clearly see in the chart where the 552 number comes from and there's two complexes listed that make that up right yeah so i think we outlined it in here though that's that that's what i'm trying to get to yeah i mean if you have paid 40 from the report but if i can go back it's the overview is that the one pasco county and you'll help them find it here you go right here so i've got then i'm saying we've we identified 552 right currently under construction with another 838 yeah that should tie to that table right so yeah but that right but that that number

yeah it's expected to be delivered this year correct right so i guess the question is which is it because it depends on what page you read um because that like one that complex is always one of the complexes always said that's not included in that has signed a jump to be open in 2022. right i mean the way we looked at it is don't forget we did had to do this in two separate phases remember we did all of our background work back in july and there was an inventory of what was under construction and uh some of these these developments that we now show as under some of the newer ones like i believe it's lexington and ascend i think it is um um that those are at that time were not considered to be under construction so those are newly introduced so yeah we're just going to this is not the right screen here yeah so but if you if on page on page 52 it says the complex yeah it wasn't included in that 552 and as i quoted it says expected to be delivered later this year so it should have been included well that was for the entitlements that we actually took it out of the no that's actually under construction so if you pull up we have some uh why aren't they not pulling you down yeah and we have some pictures for you as well that show what do you what do you what you need to consider because he's asking us to look at page 40. you're not on page 40. yeah we're on page 40 has a property names and the number of units assigned to them exactly i've got it pulled up on my ipad yeah why are we not able to keep up that's well we have the powerpoint update yeah yeah well for the people that aren't here let's try and pull up the um agenda item the the reports attached to the agenda so for people who aren't here can pull up the report off the agenda yeah so it's page 40 of the report and then when you go to page 52 it says the complex wasn't included in that 552 but it's still quotes expected to be delivered later this year so i don't understand the concept contradicts it can you pull those pictures up someone i'm trying to get a distinction of what it's considered under construction and not under construction because i'm showing four walls on this in a roof so those are clearly far along the construction which probably we've included right right so let me ask you that if i if i could just ask a question is it what what what what count are you coming up with what we're determined to be under construction i put those two under construction in two different buckets only because of the timing issue it's a timing issue don't forget yeah so that number should be 13.90 that's number should be 1390 because if you look how far along correct they all are that actual total number under construction now it should be 13. and we right we have 39. it does

say 13.98 now you have it's 13.82 i mean the 552 plus the 839 is lit yeah that's 200 it's 13. you look at the headline numbers based on your information it says you you're basically saying 552 units delivered within the next 12 months right correct right all right that should be 12. that number should be a 12 there delivered in the next 12 months i i i can't tell but i can't tell you construction or you know without any further insight is when there's i'm just telling you what it should say because okay that's look at that understood and dryers for years well they're they're moving pretty fast and refrigerators they're they're moving they're moving pretty fast so i guess i guess i don't agree with the distinction between site work and early construction and every day that's that's and we'll just stop but at this point we just put everything under construction yeah that's that's my big so we go back i i will go back to the conclusion we go back to the conclusion page the very final uh of his front here make sure i'm looking at these numbers correctly yeah here yeah because your report too says on the one on 52 says the conflict or page 52 said if you delivered this year so i don't one one page said one thing one page did a different thing could it be about i mean scrivener's yes i understand i mean again and i'm not making i don't sit here and make any excuses um this was a pretty pretty bad scramble to the finish because we were told at the end of february to expand the nav but i'm not i understand it should all be coordinated and it will be updated i just want to make sure you know again listen you know it goes to the staff it goes we just want to make sure everything's correct i understand completely and i appreciate that yes okay so states forecast demand um within the moratorium area is 1300 to 1700 units for the next two years is that correct okay forecast we're saying that 12 to 1500 roughly are unbuilt and titled correct correct okay so we're almost there for unbuilding title if those were to be built that would meet that would basically meet the demand correct okay cool so if there's 1 390 units total under construction right now that's what we came up with so i have a delt of 838 if i add the 838 to the 1200 or subtract it i should say subtract it from the 1200 to 1500 the delta right now would it's less than 400 from your bottom number of what would need to be completed to meet the demand for the next 10 years so

if less than 400 of the entitled of the entitled units are actually built which could potentially be one more apartment complex that means the demand for the next 10 years and you don't have to answer that i'm just making a statement yeah that would but that's correct right that means that demand would be met with in fact if we have the right if we are if we have the right entitlement if you have the right entitlement number yeah exactly yep so one of the ones that would come online for example we just got word that there's another one that just got a pre-app last week for 370 units we would actually be over that would make up that delta we would already meet the demand for the next 10 years with that one from what's currently being under construction right now forget the rest of the entitlements we can actually scrap that now literally because we just made that up if that were to come online the one that was went through the went through the application which i'm going to assume they're going to why they wouldn't go through that you know they want to go that far along it's met so the next 10 years according to this report of what's needed it's done so we met that that's the man's bet that's the third question just to make sure that 1390 has been deducted from the entitlement so i'm not i'm not entirely clear on that math but i don't understand but a question because um you're included entitled but not yet built in that number so okay so their numbers stay 1300 to 1700 units for the next two years that's demand that's demand that's demanding right there's currently 12 to 1500 unbuilt and titled entitled yeah the title right so if i take that i look at the current numbers right so there's 1390 units total under construction right now that's includes site work and early construction those have been taken out they're not in that place right right so if i take but if i pull out what we didn't include which is i guess that 838 number was it i might have that right andy my number am i doing my numbers right [Laughter] yeah um add that and even add it to the one that's coming online again that it's it's the demand is there it's it's it's well supplied the question is it's washed right it's between not it's a difficult thing but unless you took the time to call the developers who have remaining entitlements and ask them if they're going to use them the norm is there and terry could probably or develop if a developer was here i'm not sure you can i mean you can't say that all those entitlements are going to get built it's very rare that someone uses all their entitlements now i would think in this market today with

multi-family being such a a high priced highly desired high desired product that there may be people going around looking for entitlements and seeing if there's any land left to put some on because the demand is so high maybe they're going to try and scrape up every one of those uh potentially especially especially potentially especially you know to add that in this area which is a highly desirable area accessibility sure that's why you use that one historically that all those entitlements weren't used but that that's why i brought the one that actually just went through it's going through the application process now because you can actually there may be some that has no land you could well you can pull that so well there's we have 10 oaks they may have entitlements that they never used or and i don't think they're going to can't you can't um any of those neighborhoods i mean well yeah they're building two i'm just making that yeah yeah there's i don't know if it was the one i don't think the one that was approved by some of this board recently across the street from the one at lexington oaks that was the industrial site so there's another one that one's being built that's i don't think that's included but i could add that on top of it again but to go to commissioner um fitzpatrick's question that we really are i am curious about in your analysis um so you did not call out these entitlements but you lumped them in that number to the right is that kind of what you're saying because that line was blank and we know because we've been going through some hearings that there are a couple parcels that are in the um whatever terry that term just terry just said that i forget that has the l in it um yeah there are some parcels that can either be residential or office correct converted and were those the but they didn't seem to be called out in your report right yeah i can't go through every i i won't be able to it's your chart it's the chart with all the uh matrix the matrix yeah yeah that one so we are curious why um remaining um the remaining ones that are available which seems to me we had that number from that hearing out it's in the thousands and the remaining right it's 34 53 that's the remaining where do you but it's not there unless unless mine is incorrect the matrix i have i have nothing under remaining in either column there's no number there do you guys have something different

it's it's highlighted in the orange from the bottom is that where you're looking at no but it but there's nothing if you take the seven oaks aka saddlebrook village um and you go across it says 2 900 single families 582 multifamily have been built and then you get to the remaining the remaining there's not there's it's blank so that's the number we're questioning okay i i i is going to be a difficult mpud dri to work through we had a number of those types of mpuds where it was very hard to parse the information in the in the documents that there are going to be entitlements left on the table is is true and that's going to depend on the geography of each mpud and what each employee has actually accomplished on the ground so there's going to be a speed break is the way i've i've been thinking about it where there's going to be some mpuds where we don't quite know what the final conclusion is going to be yeah but the limiting factors are going to be how much land they have remaining yeah and what kind of land that is in terms of wetlands or um you know other types of barriers to development that is going to be on site and and so what what we felt in terms of the study as when it was produced to us that 1200 to 1500 units that you see on the sidebar there is sort of an upper bound number and uh then you're gonna you're gonna have to factor the the uncertain speed break that may actually lower those numbers uh when we proceed into the future and actualize these entitlements no check let's continue with the rest of that yeah thank you man it's true terry just stay there real quick because the gentleman wouldn't know um it's true though there was an application you mentioned um the seven oaks uh impudent for example right was there not an application for 390 units in the entitled area that just came in uh i i think it was uh on the north end of southern yeah yeah it's but it's in the it's within the impudent i think so i think i saw something yeah it did yeah because you get the notices of all applications so so you can actually again he wouldn't have time to see it because he already had to complete it which is like a week or two ago you could actually subtract that as well so there's an example of entitlements being used right if i looked at the report um when you spoke to some industry professionals right when you were doing your report

and stuff um did they mention in because i think i saw in your report that the demand was plateauing a little bit though but they stated that the band was plateau i think i mean it's plateauing but it's still st it's still steady but i but it's still robust yeah so that's maybe important it's only naturally cycles but we see i mean it is kind it is it is it is it is reaching it's you know it's at least right now on top of a cycle right but it's still robust compared to historical levels and it should remain that way um and that there was no there was very little concern about the fact that even with all of the deliver deliveries that are coming online that occupancy will take a major hit they're very confident that these will be absorbed and the occupancy will remain stable above 90 or 95 okay thanks well i'm going to close i know there's people that probably have questions and things but again i just want to go back to something i've been talking about for a number of years and i'm glad this report came out because it justifies what i've been saying is that if you look at the total number of units that are being built tomorrow units are being entitled according to report what's needed in the next 10 years this demand's already been met right it's already met it's now we just heard a report from the regional planning council that says we're going to be we have a shortfall of 150 000 jobs right and you look along these major corridors what should be there well they stated earlier that you should not be switching out industrial but then when they said industrial they also included and i asked that question office and even retail job creating sites for additional multi-family along those corridors and that's also why i asked that question the regional planning council too if that area along that 50 54 56 corridor in that intersection of 75 if that's where you should be having these job created sites have created sites and and save those and that's what they stated as well so you know just think listen i'm only here for unfortunately for six more months but what i'm hoping for six months after that is that you know future boards take into consideration what the regional planning council said what some of us have been saying on the diets for a number of years is that we need to save these sites for job creation not just for today but for future generations and we look at the impact some residential has including multi-family it's a fact you know it's it's me it's a bigger demand on fire rescue it's a bigger demand on the sheriff's office our services as a total right i mean am i not correct i mean you know so typically you're singing out multi-family should we do all housing well this is are you saying we should this is all happening this is a report on

multi-family we're not having a report on single family that's what i'm talking about well i'm just asking you well we should have a moratorium on housing maybe you should ask for a um a study on that as i asked for one for this then we when it breaks they bring it back we'll have that conversation but today we're talking about multi-family um so again i think points proven i appreciate it and uh with that so your conclusion was white what's that can you state your conclusion again sure basically um yes that based upon the analysis that we have in hand in terms of entitlements there's approximately 1200 to 1500 multi-family units unbuilt un entitled remaining within the mav there is demand for a minimum thirteen hundred to seventeen hundred units demanded over that ten year period um which would indicate then you would use up those entitlements within six to ten years the question posed was is there an over saturation of multi-family within the mab and from our conclusion the answer is there is no oversaturation so what is there will will meet the demand but it's not oversaturated correct okay um did you have more questions because i i i what is the i have one and then and i've asked this and no one's been able to give me this answer what is the and maybe there isn't a correct answer is there a good ratio for us to understand what a good balance is between single-family multi-family or that that's the way there really isn't any everybody is unique however that's one thing we wanted to point out you know to your neighbors again it's a land availability but your neighbors uh both pinellas and hillsborough again hillsboro is very very you know hillsboro the mab now matches basically what's occurring in hillsboro almost exactly in terms of that balance pinellas i'm having trouble understanding what this says i just have a hard time understanding your graph um so what is the percentage of single family to multi-family in health in hillsboro yeah it's on the bottom so during take take take 1990s it was 60 64 single family to 36 percent multi okay and then and then that fluctuated modestly between you know 2000 and 2010s zakat but it always stays in that 65 to 70 percent range for single family versus multi-family all right in pinellas county it's much more much more more multi-family they don't have a land availability obviously as hillsborough county or pasco okay because they're going to healthy families because they're built out and they're going up correct correct and yeah and they've even started out because they were small they even started out with a much higher

proportion share of multi-family but now you can see in between 2010 and thirty one 2020 were single family so the balance is molded and what is our percentage of single family and this is this only in the map or is this on the whole well i have both so mab you can see from 19 86 single family 80s overall that's that's total development that's totally yes of all existing inventory it's 86 percent but i looked at it per decade so okay what what is the percentage of single family to multi-family in the map in total units eighty-six percent eighty-six so that's that's very high it's quite helpful it's slanted much more towards and you can see single families that's correct yeah so you know if we had gone back 20 years and were planning this area i would have said the intersection of 75 and 52 and 56 and that whole quadrant would be where you want your density of multi-family i mean i think planners would would tell you that it's you know that's where your towns build up is at the intersection of your infrastructure that's just historical i mean that's just historical so you got you got a college there you got a mall there you have two malls you have two moles there that's where density goes all right um um so we've got a weird anomaly over there on page 10 and in the executive summary portion of the study it it looks at the mab the mortar area boundary the study area and it says that prior to 2010 single family dominated in the mab at more than 80 percent of inventory so the market was bringing let's say 80 20 balance between single family and multi-family and then during the following decade 20 2010 to 2020 the mix was more at 68 single family and 32 percent multi-family so again the market brought you a kind of 70 30 balance in the next decade um overall i think there was a number in the in the report too that indicated uh in 11 89 89 pasco county a single family 11 is almost almost 11 is multi-family so you see that uh also market ratio uh playing out overall in the county a 90 10 ratio overall so where the right balance is to your question madam chair is probably uh it's a policy decision on the part of the board of county commissioners but the market is basically telling you anywhere between 70 30 to 90 10 would be a balancing where you would want to target yeah and then and so what happens if we don't if we don't supply that

demand someone else is going to supply it it's going to be hernando county and um yes no and that may be fine we just got a regional plan 150 000 jobs right right now that's a policy decision i mean martin county said no one could build over two stories and they can't build anymore and they're four stories and yeah they they don't want any growth and you know so i mean that is a decision for us but we will get their traffic we will get their traffic without any income from it so that's the only thing yeah but here's the thing so they're telling us the market's saturated so it's a balance for the next 10 years we don't need any more apartments in this area we're good that's what it's saying the other thing and again back to the regional planning council report we need to go create jobs to get a better balance and when you create more jobs if people want to drive as far you'll help your traffic right now i mean the virgin diamond just opened there's only so many improvements we're going to make the traffic that's in that area right now and commissioner moore how long does it take you to get to luxembourg go get balls apartments how long does it take you to get to lexington oaks to go hit balls i got stuck it was it was like 40 minutes one day 45 and a half minutes away from my health and it used to be yeah you should be five minutes away so so we don't need any more saturation with the heavy density uh i know cities will grow that way and in time we may shift like pinellas but what pinellas did as well their jobs ratio is phenomenal yeah that's when we need to focus so i think this moratorium is solid here to keep in place for 10 years and then i think you can go look at maybe we should go a little bit further down that 54 corridor and 56 corridor to find out how far down we want to go to take a look at it as well okay well i i mean okay i know he said something he can't say well no well i mean i gotta set the record straight you don't have a moratorium now it's expired and you can't put it back in place with all due respect to the consultant you a moratorium is a fight it can only be put in place for a finite period of time okay and there has to be regulations that you're working on developing to get to fix the problem and that's not happened here okay so what do you recommend from what you're you're seeing what's the next steps of the commission do to try to not just let this problem get worse that's what you can do now this is this is a something that you should be addressing in your evaluation and appraisal report in the comprehensive plan

that's what they're there for and you may need to down plan some areas in your comprehensive plan there are legal consequences to that but if that's where the board is truly going that's the fix is to is to not approve over development i mean that the commission the chair is right the mpuds that historically have been approved in this county as other counties um don't look into real scale of the land that they're trying to build on they are well over entitled for the land that they can they can build on so they're when they get done with a quality development they're going to have lots of units left over that's that's the way these approvals are done and when you put put in a land use equivalency matrix on top of that it's it jacks it it moves the total build out of a community to maximum so you will get the highest density based on the approvals that you've given because the the the whole purpose of the equivalency matrix is to allow flexibility and so they can change the development community can change over the approvals from what the board granted to either what market trends are or to max out their site so i just want to say i don't think there's anybody on this board that doesn't think jobs are number one issue i think job creation and attraction of high-paying jobs should be our absolute number one focus and that's why i work on workforce development so passionately because i think that is a real tool for us to use to attract high-paying jobs and i especially love manufacturing jobs but um and i'm not i'm not saying that miss commissioner moore should have more apartments in his district i'm not saying that at all i'm just saying that that i'm talking about planning trends and and the way communities grow where there's infrastructure like that that's where density tends to go um just look at it around the world so um but i do think as we go through our comp plan we have some policy decisions to make and and i think we need to listen to our community and we need to you know really get an understanding of what it means when we make decisions that we make i made a statement here that today that um not statement i i mentioned that there used to be a number that that was applied to the value of a house

whether it added to the tax base or took from the tax base well does that mean we only want to allow houses that are 500 000 and over i mean that's a policy decision i mean that has but that has consequences because um because then the the housing costs are going to go crazy and if housing costs go crazy then we're going to have people who can't afford to live here and and they're going to live in another county and they're going to drive here so you know it's it's a balancing act of of making sure that we grow the way the best way that we can and we make decisions that help guide that and i think that's one of the reasons why you have to keep always adjusting your comp plan is so that you can prepare you know for the next 10 20 years on what the right kind of growth is that the county wants commissioner mariana and you know you bring up a good point as far as you look at you know does the residential growth hurt or help as far as your overall budget and and i will go with you that i think those higher end homes they pay their own way and then some they act and and that was also part of what we also looked at years ago was where the executives want to live right they want to live in the high-end homes that's right so if i'm going to go focused on building something i want to build the high-end homes where the executives want to live where they may bring their business and obviously creating amenities and other quality of life things that we're doing with environmental lands to stimulate that to come to bring them so it makes me nervous that we're approving all these 40-foot lot neighborhoods but we also have an affordability problem so what's the right balance and i really you know i'm almost like bring the uli back in help us because um you know i think you brought it up that in two rivers ranch the high-end homes in that development are being built right in hillsborough county and we're getting the 40-foot lots um so what what is it that is happening here that we're not getting more of the big houses i i you know we have potentially a youth sporting complex coming and i drove some folks that are interested in that youth sporting complex around looking for housing stock and we didn't have it we didn't have it for what they're looking for and so how do we ensure that we're providing that range you know is that a market thing or do we help direct that um those those are things we have to talk about but in my opinion we cannot fill

up with 40-foot lots in this whole county it is lunchtime um well interesting stuff and we we appreciate the the work you did and i know it's uh you um had some tough questions and thank you thank you and we appreciate it very appreciative i almost wish you had done it for the whole county and we could have just understood where we need to focus what on and what what part of the county and i guess as a plan we're gonna we're gonna dig into that i think as we work on our complex so much work to be done thank you i appreciate it thank you all right [Music]

pasco county waterways and wildlife depend on you to keep them healthy excess fertilizer grass clippings trash oils and pet waste